Over the past ten days, three parliamentary election polls have all agreed that the two main protest parties, ‘Alma’ of Odysseas Michaelides and ‘Direct Democracy’ established by MEP Feidias Panayiotou will make it over the threshold needed to enter parliament in May.
And not just that. They’re battling it out for fourth place in the polling. At another level, the National Popular Front, ELAM, has established itself in 3rd and Democratic Rally DISY maintains top position. AKEL’s second place is also secure and the Democratic Party, DIKO seems to be surviving politically and electorally in comparison to the rest of the centre wing parties. Speaking of which, Socialist EDEK, DIPA, the Greens-Citizens Alliance and Volt, hover between near parliamentary entry and threshold distance.
This makes up the recent polling scene. It’s still however, game on. Parliamentary elections are six months away and we’re still at the starting line. We don’t yet know who the candidates of most parties are, the election campaign has not been officially launched, the rallying percentages are low, there are a number of unknown, unpredictable factors and actually quite a bit of time to make serious mistakes or negative developments to take hold. In certain polls, the undeclared vote reaches 30%, while the undecided rise to 20%. The vote is volatile, while the polls still don’t contain complete projections on party percentages.
The initial outlook
There’s always a possibility that the current setting resulting from public opinion research might change, said Pulse Market Research Polling company CEO Panayiotis Panayiotou, adding that ‘certain indications are there, but one cannot be absolute’. He noted that an initial outlook has formed but it’s likely that there will be significant changes when the parties complete their line-ups.
To illustrate his approach, he made a certain hypothesis on how the setting could change. Panayiotou stressed that if current MP Eirini Charalambidou joins Volt, it could push the party up to 5%.
‘The ballots are not ready and the candidates have yet to campaign’, he added, so ‘…it’s yet premature to say that today’s poll results are indicative and won’t change come election day’.
Υes, Τurnarounds are possible
Asked if there might be a reversal of fortunes for parties which now secure the parliamentary threshold, Panayiotou referred to the ‘possibility of deconstruction’, such as the Greens-Citizens Alliance Party, which was polling at 7-8% prior to the 2021 parliamentary elections but ended up down at 4%.
He further said that right on the election month there will definitely be a better indication of the outcome, but it will still be ‘touch and go’. Such was the example of Feidias Panayiotou in the 2024 EP elections, who developed a two week dynamic prior to the polls and his percentages skyrocketed, with pollsters certainly noticing an upward trend, but definitely not predicting 19%’.
Asked whether Feidias was the exception to the rule, he responded in the positive, adding that ‘Panayiotou pushed ELAM down to fourth place and DIKO into fifth, left AKEL with just one seat and EDEK lost its lone one, overturning political balances’. So the possibility of reversals and changes is always there.
Smaller parties
Commenting on whether smaller parties that fail to make the cut, might do so with electoral adjustments, Panayiotou noted it was too early to say at this stage. But if someone should venture into that sort of estimate, minor political groups might garner close to 3%. And asked whether such percentages are lower in the polls due to the sample, he said ‘there were no representation issues with the sample, this is the setting that’s formed today’.
He further argued that this did hold some truth in the 2019 EP elections and the 2021 parliamentary poll when it came to DIPA, in the 2024 European parliament vote however, polls were predicting 2% for this party, which was exactly the percentage it ended up getting. On Socialist EDEK, he did confirm that its voters are still not rallying around the party and obviously this was not down to the poll.
The election body however ‘is dynamic, not static, so many things can happen and I expect that EDEK voters will rally’. Panayiotou also claimed that last time round, DIPA set up a really good ballot and secured the votes to show for its efforts. At this stage, he stressed, we don’t yet know the DIPA candidates and if the party manages to set up a strong ballot, it is likely that it may go up to 3-4%, reaching the parliamentary threshold.
Volt was higher in previous polls, but has now dropped in voter preferences, with a possible explanation being that ‘certain AKEL losses or more centre-left wing votes might have chosen other paths than Volt, such as ALMA for example’. But if the Michaelides party should lose its dynamic, then Volt might gain more support.
‘We still have a long way to go and 30% of voters have not yet settled on a preference, most of them are undecided’, he said.
The election race has yet to launch and…
‘It’s game very much on’.
A number of candidates have been announced, he added, but the ballots have yet to be completed, with no election campaign funding starting as yet.
Asked whether his experience indicates that such factors are game changers, Panayiotou responded in the positive and spoke of possible reversals by moving a seat in Paphos.
‘The fifth seat for Paphos is interesting and forges competition between EDEK and ALMA, making the process even more exciting’, he stressed. If EDEK, he added, achieves a good result in the district, driven by the ALMA competition, it might push the party through the threshold.
Today’s map
The IMF founder and CEO Christina Kokkalou also spoke about the current electoral setting, noting that the two largest parties DISY and AKEL are shrinking in percentage power, ELAM is rising and establishing itself in 3rd place, while centre wing DIKO is currently losing its trademark kingmaker role. She did however argue that the Democratic Party does remain resilient, with the two new parties, ALMA and Direct Democracy vying for an important role in the process.
She referred to a downward trend when it comes to smaller parties, such as EDEK, DIPA or the Greens, adding that this might be due to their distance from what society is projecting. She did, however, point out that ‘the smaller the parties, the larger the statistical fault’.
Kokkalou added that the IMR polls are conducted without final projections of all factors, so a party securing 1% in a research when 20% are undecided or don’t want to answer, then that party’s percentage will rise, if all those who did not give an answer are taken out of the equation. She explained that the final poll result is forged based on real votes, so a party securing 1 or 1.5% in polling without the undecided factored in, could possibly reach 3%, based on valid votes.
Surprises
When it comes to surprises in the upcoming elections, she noted that by all accounts ALMA and Direct Democracy might receive a double-digit percentage. The degree of DISY and AKEL percentage loss will also be one of the surprises, she added, as well as how close ELAM will get to them.
According to her assessment ‘these elections will be full of surprises in a new parliament with a different party ranking’.
She did note that the setting will become clearer in polling during the last month prior to the election. It will definitely be very different than it is today. The candidates have yet to be decided, she added, indicating that personalities play a major role in elections.
‘The Lost Vote’
Asked whether today’s poll outlook on certain smaller parties that miss out on the parliamentary threshold might work against them as a polarised picture and prevent them from developing a dynamic based on the ‘lost vote’ approach, Kokkalou noted that according to scientific studies, polls don’t affect the final outcome to a significant degree.
It's About Personalities
Today’s voters mainly go for personalities not parties, Panayiotou said, noting that in the latest OMEGA poll, 57% said that it supported candidates and 31% voted for parties. As he indicated, this particular poll further showed that the centre is more volatile to the logic of personalities that the two opposing ideological polls of left and right, who are more party patriotic.
‘Personalities in centre wing parties play a more significant role’, he added, suggesting that transfers and personalities are creating a dynamic that will become evident in January and February.
He said that volatility was highest in these elections possibly because of the introduction of new parties to the setting.
‘It is likely that the ideological polls of AKEL and DISY might not make it over the combined percentage of 45% this time’, he stressed.
Commenting on whether this volatility might be a result in the personality-oriented approach of voters, Panayiotou said that this was mainly due to the psychology of the public, who don’t decide in the traditional manner of party patriotism.
‘Today’s voters have a more complex process, taking into account a series of factors such as personal interest and what really expresses them, but also what doesn’t, so its possible that they might want to punish a certain party’, he concluded.