A seven‑party House of Representatives would emerge if elections were held last Sunday, according to a survey conducted by Cymar Market Research on behalf of ANT1. Specifically, the poll projects that DISY and AKEL would each secure 14 seats, ELAM 10 seats, DIKO 8 seats, Direct Democracy 4 seats, and ALMA and Volt 3 seats each.
In voting intention without seat allocation, DISY leads with 17%, followed by AKEL at 16%. ELAM ranks third with 11%, while DIKO places fourth with 8%. Fifth place is shared by Direct Democracy and ALMA with 5% each. Volt follows with 4%. EDEK and the Greens–Citizens’ Cooperation receive 2%, while DIKO, Active Citizens – United Cypriot Hunters Movement and Siko Pano register 1%. The largest “party” is the undecided vote, with 18% of respondents saying they “do not know / do not answer.”
With decided voters only, party percentages rise, with DISY and AKEL both reaching 22%. ELAM secures 15%, followed by DIKO at 10%, Direct Democracy at 7%, ALMA at 6% and Volt at 5%.
Alignments
The opinion poll presented last night on ANT1 shows that DISY’s voter cohesion remains low, at 57%. The findings indicate vote flows from DISY to ELAM (10%), and to ALMA and Direct Democracy (4%). Additionally, 12% of DISY voters declare themselves undecided.
AKEL records the highest cohesion, reaching 74%, with vote flows from AKEL to Direct Democracy at 6% and to ALMA and Volt at 3%. ELAM’s cohesion stands at 60%, with 13% of its voters flowing to DISY and 4% to Direct Democracy. Furthermore, 8% of ELAM voters say they are undecided. DIKO’s cohesion reaches 58%, with voter flows to ALMA at 9%. Notable flows are also recorded towards AKEL (7%) and ELAM (6%). However, 9% of DIKO voters replied “do not know / do not answer.” DIKO’s cohesion stands at 33%, EDEK’s at 32% and the Greens’ at 28%.
It is noted that 82% of respondents said they are certain about how they will vote, while 18% stated that they may change their mind. In addition, 80% say they will definitely vote in the elections, 10% say “definitely / probably not,” and another 10% reply “probably yes.”
Methodology
The survey was carried out from 28 April to 10 May through telephone interviews using a structured questionnaire, on a sample of 1,410 men and women over the age of 18 who are registered voters, in urban and rural areas. The sample included reinforcement in Paphos. Sampling was random, based on a sampling frame created from randomly generated numbers, and the data were weighted according to the profile of the electorate.
