Turkey is approaching Wednesday's informal meeting on the sidelines of the NATO summit with a clear objective: securing tangible gains in its relationship with the European Union before committing to any meaningful new negotiating process on the Cyprus issue.
The meeting will bring together Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, at a time when diplomatic efforts to revive Cyprus negotiations remain uncertain.
According to information obtained by Politis, Ankara has made it clear that it views EU-Turkey relations and the Cyprus issue as parallel tracks. However, Turkish officials are said to be seeking concrete benefits from the EU before considering whether to support a new substantive negotiating process under United Nations auspices.
Guterres reportedly uncertain about new conference
The same sources indicate that UN Secretary-General António Guterres is not currently convinced that the necessary political conditions exist to convene a new informal five-party conference.
According to the report, Guterres remains uncertain whether such an initiative would lead to productive negotiations, given Turkey's continued insistence that progress in its relations with the European Union should come first.
During talks with EU leaders, Erdoğan is expected to present a list of priorities linked to the EU-Turkey agenda, including:
- Upgrading the EU-Turkey Customs Union
- Visa liberalisation for Turkish citizens
- Expanded economic cooperation
- The resumption of broader political dialogue
These issues remain high on Ankara's list of demands.
Concerns in Brussels
According to sources cited by Politis, there is concern within EU circles that the bloc could find itself offering a series of concessions to Turkey without receiving corresponding commitments on the Cyprus issue.
European officials reportedly fear that Erdoğan may seek to leverage Turkey's growing geopolitical importance to secure significant progress on EU-Turkey relations while maintaining Ankara's existing positions on Cyprus.
The report also suggests that Guterres has been in close contact with Costa in recent months, reflecting the UN's view that the European Union's stance will play a crucial role in determining whether conditions emerge for a new informal conference.
Test of the EU's strategy
Under these circumstances, Wednesday's meeting is expected to serve as an important test of whether the European Union remains committed to the approach promoted by Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides.
Nicosia's position is that progress in EU-Turkey relations should be linked to corresponding positive developments on the Cyprus issue, rather than the other way around.
Christodoulides, who has repeatedly stressed that he remains in close contact with senior EU leaders, reiterated that Cyprus' strategy has not changed.
According to the president, meaningful progress on Cyprus should open the door to improvements in EU-Turkey relations, not vice versa.
Whether Ankara is willing to accept that approach is expected to become clearer following the meeting and could influence Guterres' next steps regarding efforts to revive negotiations.
Ultimately, the outcome of the talks may determine whether the EU continues to link progress in its relationship with Turkey to developments on Cyprus, or whether Ankara succeeds in shifting the focus primarily to its own European agenda without making parallel commitments on the resumption of substantive negotiations.
